The Real Value of Silver

by Mukarji
(Ontario, Canada)

The price of silver has historically been very low during the whole 20th century. In 1901 it was $0.6/oz and in 1999 it was $5.2/oz (yearly average). The only years it has been above $7/oz was 1979-1983. When Hunt brothers tried to corner the silver market it went as high as $50 in Jan 1980.


If we try to ascertain the inflation adjusted price of silver from the recent past, lets say 1971 onward, it does not come anywhere close to the 1980 peak.

The price of silver in 1971 was $1.4/oz and if we apply inflation rate of 3%-8% over the period, the inflation adjusted price will range between $5 and $36 (inflation 3% silver $5, 4% $7, 5% $11, 6% $16, 7% $24, 8% $36). A house bought in 1971 for $20k which now cost $230k, will represent 6% annual inflation ($20k in 1971 with 6% CAGR would be $230k in 2013). I have taken 1971 as base year, because it is prior to the oil crisis of the 70s (agreed, one can argue why 1971 and not some other year).

It has been claimed that silver price has historically been artificially suppressed. It has generally been quoted that the current mining/production cost of silver is between $15-20/oz. My assumption is that this cost is quite consistent over the last 40 years considering that inflation increase may have been offset by the increased efficiency due to technological advances.

Now what is most incredible is how these mining companies been kept in business over the last 40 years when there production/mining cost has been much higher then the selling price. Only during 1979, 1980, 1982 and 2006-13 the silver price has averaged over $10/oz.

To conclude, I do expect that the silver price would go higher but only due to coming financial meltdown. Although how high is difficult to say. In the normal circumstances, the silver price can not go above $25/oz if the production/mining cost is around $15-20/oz. The market (supply and demand) will always take care of the price. If the miners make huge profit, in the long run, new ventures will start and the increased supply will adjust the price accordingly.

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@ Rubbish Article NEW
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@ False Measurement Of The Value of Silver NEW

I am not a very smart person. But I assume that the CEOs of big mining companies are very smart or at least smarter than myself. However, when these silver mining companies are operating (allegedly) at substantial losses for not years but decades (look at historic silver prices), I all of sudden consider myself Einstein.

Yes silver prices will eventually go very high, but not due to any special characteristics of silver, but due to mutual madness of financial world. I suspect it will result initially in REAL deflation, where all assets (properties, factories as well as gold and silver) will lose its value. There will be wholesale personal and business bankruptcies. The reason gold and silver will go down initially (as it has gone done in every major recession) is due to the firesale/liquidation of portfolios to cover the margin calls. Even this liquidation will not be sufficient to cover the margin call and result in confiscation of collateralize assets (properties, factories etc) by the lenders (the FED, which is a PRIVATE entity, owns most of toxic assets papers currently will then confiscate those assets). The world which currently has a GDP of around $70 trillion dollars and a dept of $200 trillion will go into a major RESET. All the collaterize asset against those debt will be confiscated and the balance of the debt will be WIPED OUT. For several years the world will be a difficult place to live as food and other essentials would be in short supply. To add insult to injury, those are the time that give rise of world conflicts and possibility of world war 3 is not that insane.

Then to RESTART the world's central banks will start printing money like crazy. This will possibly result in hyperinflation or at least a substantial inflation. All asset (including gold and silver) will then start to appreciate in value (or go to the moon in case of hyperinflation). An ounce of silver may value anything between $20 to $2k depending on inflation. An ounce of gold may value between $2k to $200k. ALSO, a residential property which is worth $500k now, went down to around $100k to $300k in deflation, will appreciate to $700k to $50 million. HOWEVER, SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THESE PROPERTIES WILL BE OWNED BY BANKS AND NOT BY THE INDIVIDUALS.

The only positive I see in holding gold or silver (if the government does not made it illegal to own by individuals, as it was done in 1933) is that golf and silver is NORMALLY kept net and clear (non-collateralize) by the individuals. So banks/lenders will not be able to take it away to settle debts.

Now any asset or thing that can hold on to its value during the deflation and can even be utilized/consumed during those times (gold has absolutely no use other than money, and silver has some industrial use other than money, but I suspect in those times, that industrial use like solar panel making etc will decline as well) will be worth storing now, together will gold and silver.

I know I will get a lot of slack for writing what ever I have written so far and I actually welcome constructive/educated comments.

Also, if people know of any item that may be an alternate to gold or silver to maintain your networth, please let us know.

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I had no idea that the price of silver was very low during the whole 20th century. Anyway, silver is regarded to be a transition metal and a precious metal. Nowadays it has a significant role in technology as well. It is widely used in circuit boards, switches films, etc.

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Rubbish Article NEW
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1) True cost of mining silver is much higher. Most are mining at a loss. Look at the write downs for both gold and silver mining companies.
Examples in gold include over $2.6 Billion (that's right billion) for the Rand Refinery.
Newmount $1.6 Billion... And virtually everyone else.
Silver (a much smaller market)...
All of the top 12 producers faced losses with their average mining cost breakeven at $26.45 and rising rapidly.

2) The "dollar" cost is in fiat, paper money that's unbacked by anything. It's a debt instrument created by commercial banks out of thin air and lent into existence.

3) Banks can print unlimited fiat and lend it to miners to mine more to quell demand whilst they continue their schemes.

4) The world enters into a dangerous phase where the elites globally are planning a war to depopulate the planet.

5) Drones and surveillance and a militarized police will likely "disable" anyone that disagrees with the system as they will be seen as a threat.

Keep stacking and preparing people. China, Russia, USA, UK, Australia, South American Countries treat their populations with just as much contempt as each other, learn from history. Only you will take care of you. Come to terms with the harsh reality. Good luck!f

Aug 24, 2013
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CLUELESS IN ONTARIO NEW
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THIS CLOWN IS CLUELESS ABOUT "THE REAL VALUE OF SILVER."

Aug 23, 2013
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Silver actually may be more valuable than gold NEW
by: Anonymous

There will be no easily accessible and mineable silver left on the planet within 10-15 years. Look at the exponential decline in ore grades mined over the last decade. Silver is the most strategically important mineral on the planet; we can live without gold; no so with silver. Silver will be worth more than gold, because there is no other element that can be used as efficiently in weaponry, electronics, water purification and micro biology as well as 10,000 other uses.

Aug 23, 2013
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False Measurement Of The Value of Silver NEW
by: Anonymous

I have more of what would be a question. How can the value of silver even be measured in terms of the dollar? when the dollar has no value, whatsoever. The dollar is composed of mere cotton fibers. The concept of the dollar being money is pure illusion, made up.

With the dollar having no intrinsic value, at all, it should not be used to measure the true/real value of any precious metal, especially silver because silver is real money, but, no dollar is.
Is it just me, or, is there something wrong with this picture?

Aug 23, 2013
Rating
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Missing a few things NEW
by: Anonymous

You didn't even touch on the expansion of real money supply that is many multitudes higher than tracked inflation.....the government has TRILLIONS in interest rate swaps to hide the expansion of money from the mainstream economy.

Also, silver supply is DECREASING in the past year....silver inventory is 97% used up over the past 50 years, etc. In a world with finite resources, money supply alone doesn't dictate price....demand, supply, strategic importance, scarcity, all play a huge role.

The silver price makes ZERO sense and so does the acceptance of paper money for ANY price. Don't waste time looking at silver vs. dollars. Dollars will be extinct soon like EVERY other paper currency ever. Paper has a 100% fail rate.

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