by Andy

I feel like the ratio will go under 5 to 1 gold to silver.

Rational is as follows.


1) Amount of gold above ground around 6 billion onces.

2) Amount of silver above ground 3 billion ounces

3) The geological link below discusses silver reserves.
Silver reserves are about 500,000 tons or (500K) X (2000) X 16 or about 16 billion ounces.
Reserves means the amount of silver in the ground that is extractable using current technology at current prices.
It does not mean that all those mines are built,only that, if they were, this is the amount of silver which could be economically extracted.
If the price of silver goes to $60, the reserves will go up since it is worth it to dig deeper etc to get it. If the price of oil goes up,
everything being equal, the reserves will go down since extraction is energy intensive..

4) OK. Now lets make some intentionally false assumptions that clearly OVER-estimate the rarity of gold compared to silver. Lets assume that at some future date, silver goes crazy high (Oil will probably follow somewhat) and the silver reserves
go from 16 to 25 billion ounces in the ground.

5) Now assume that there is absolutely no gold underground. The totality of gold on the planet is the 6 billion ounces that have already been mined.
(Insanely under estimates amount of gold).

6) Now assume that there is suddenly NO industrial use for silver and that it is not a crucial industrial metal that is being used up at 700 million ounces per year. It's only use in this alternated universe is as a precious metal.

7) Finally assume that you could magically bring up all the underground silver, purify it and stick it in warehouses,ready to be sold exclusively as a precious metal (None for industrial).

8) Final tally:

All the gold in the world: 6 billion ounces.

All the silver in the world 3 + 25 =28 billion ounces. Lets even round it up to 30 billion ounces.

So even doing all those crazy manipulations, over estimating and underestimating the amount of silver and gold respectively, silver is only 5 times as abundant as gold. Based on this, i honestly believe that the true gold/silver ratio is well under 5. Just my opinion. True free market will not be seen until the phony paper silver market crumbles and falls.

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