“If a little is great, and a lot is better, then way too much is just about right!”
A comment from my last essay, "Finding The Real Price Of Money", got me thinking about preparing for the eventual crisis.
That - and an experience I had in the ocean.
I wrote that:
"The four major monetary zones have collectively printed over $40 trillion currency units (call them dollars if you want) over the last 6-7 years. Most agree that about 180,000 tons of gold exist above ground. At today’s price of around $1,250 per ounce that would be about $7,200,000,000,000.
The gold price would need to rise at least five and half times to back all of the $40 trillion in world fiat, or at least $7,000 per ounce of gold. At a 10:1 ratio, that would put silver at $700 per ounce.
The only way to pull this monetary fiasco together, without defaulting the entire edifice, is to revalue the metals up to that level. Would they do it? No way. Will it happen naturally? Perhaps, though not without disorder and confusion."
My friend and your fellow subscriber Chris wrote:
"Great article but I think your estimates might be way low.
In the Weimar printing experiment, I believe the POG went up to 12 orders of magnitude. (It added 12 zeroes.) Of course the scale, one country vs. the world’s reserve currency, is different.
And then there are so many other forms of money that might be counted since the old M1, M2, or M3 no longer make any sense. Perhaps like all the other debt and like gazillions in derivatives?
It is near to impossible for any of us to imagine a totally worthless dollar and yet I fear it is assured, sadly, along with all the coming chaos, martial law, and worse".
I agree with you regarding the price estimates. I was trying to make it 'rational' – which, of course, has the effect of shrink-wrapping to satisfy our reptilian brains.
Your sentiment, “It is near to impossible for any of us to imagine a totally worthless dollar and yet I fear it is assured, sadly along with all the coming chaos, martial law, and worse”, is right on the ‘money’.
Lately, I've begun to notice that many who 'see' the silver or gold opportunity are not fully grasping that this is one part of preparedness. A preparedness that may indeed end up to be futile. That the time to sit back and ‘count the ounces’ may never be realized in the way many would like to imagine.
My hope is that new 'investors' will eventually embrace the opportunity as a slippery slope toward taking the whole picture into account, thinking and acting through the process of accepting reality and preparing - like it has for me and many others.
Sadly, along with muted and volatile prices, that isn't very appetizing for the average man.
I was surfing (paddling mostly) in heavy surf conditions last week - some of the biggest, strongest and longest period swell I've experienced since my kids were born. Eventually, I caught one wave after 2 hours.
The entire first hour was spent paddling out. It was hell. I came close to giving up at least three times. When I got close to the main impact zone, a huge set of 10 waves unloaded right in front of me. I had to ditch my board (an 8'4" 'rhino-chaser') and swim under each one to maintain a position. It was violent. I was in full-on "keep calm" mode, simultaneously acknowledging, yet trying to ignore, the visceral signs of panic.
Finally, I make it out and spent the next hour feeling like a squirrel on the freeway paddling for my life.
In the end, I found the courage to paddle for a 'small' one. I made it in. The survival euphoria doesn't last very long.
Most people don't understand why I would even do it. My wife doesn't want to hear about it. I wouldn't recommend it for someone who is inexperienced.
I tell myself it's because I can and it's a practice. It makes me think of prepping for the coming collapse. The exhilarating practice. Whether at a pistol range, exercising, or the mental rehearsal of what things might look.
Maybe preparation can come in many forms? Or maybe safety and risk-aversion are overused terms?
I don't love that we need to be ready. It's depressing that things have gotten so out of hand. And that it's inevitable that they will unravel in epic proportion.
But I do see something in the thrill of the practice - stacking, accumulating assets, or developing skills and mindset that might come in handy.